Epidemiological microbiological risk modelling

At DTU National Food Institute we conduct research into epidemiology, surveillance and control of zoonoses and foodborne disease in the entire production chain.

Methods and mathematical models

We develop and apply mathematical models to predict disease transmission by

• Identifying sources and unravelling transmission pathways
• Quantifying the association between occurrence of pathogens in the food chain and the risk of human disease
• Investigating the association between antimicrobial usage and occurrence of antimicrobial resistant bacteria and genes in animals, food and humans.

The research focuses on the development of mathematical tools for evaluating food safety risks and does, to a large extent, apply national and international data from integrated monitoring and surveillance programmes. Supported by the development of laboratory detection and typing methods, the research activities are aimed at being capable of handling the increasing complexity of the epidemiology of infectious diseases.

The methods applied include stochastic mathematical modelling, Bayesian inference modelling, temporal and spatial analysis as well as regression analysis.

The research results, including risk assessments, are used to support decision makers in:

Evaluating the need for and effect of new control efforts
Designing monitoring and control programmes
Continuously assessing the effect of implemented control of infectious diseases, including food and waterborne diseases.

Collaboration

National

DTU Informatics, Denmark
Danish Veterinary and Food Aministration, Denmark
Statens Serum Institut, Denmark
University of Copenhagen
Danish Agriculture and Food Council

International

European Food Saftey Authority - EFSA
World Health Organization - WHO
Centers for Disease Controls, US - CDC
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, NL - RIVM
Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, DE - BfR
French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, FR - AFSSA
Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agencies, UK - AHVLA
Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, US – JIFSAN